Adegbite Falade, Chairman of IPPG
…Nigeria is moving towards a situation in which domestic refineries could require more than 1.5 million barrels of crude per day
-Felix Douglas
Delivering his opening Keynote Address at the third edition of the Nigeria Oil Refining Summit (NORS) 2026, Chairman of Independent Petroleum Producers Group (IPPG), Adegbite Falade, said the upstream perspective is the future of refining in Nigeria will depend not only on the scale and sophistication of refineries, but fundamentally on the strength, resilience and competitiveness of the upstream sector that must feed them.
Falade was of the view that the theme of this year’s summit, “Refining for Value: Linking Upstream Supply to Downstream Demand” not only resonates deeply with Nigeria’s collective aspirations as a nation but demonstrates its determination to harness its abundant hydrocarbon resources for the benefit of all Nigerians.
The IPPG Chairman commended the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) under the leadership of the Chairman – Mr. Momoh Oyarekhua, for convening the summit – a platform which in only three years has established itself as a credible voice for the future of the downstream sector.
“Today, it is a fact that Nigeria has achieved the status of a large-scale domestic refining nation, officially becoming a net exporter of petroleum products, ending decades of import dependence. This laudable achievement has been made possible through coherent, consistent, and reform-driven policies.”
The IPPG Chairman also applauded the Federal Government for taking difficult but necessary decisions to reform the petroleum sector. The removal of petrol subsidy, the movement towards a market-based foreign exchange regime, the Naira-for-Crude initiative, and the broader implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) has fundamentally changed the operating environment.
These reforms are creating the market signals necessary to attract capital, improve efficiency, and establish a more sustainable downstream petroleum industry.
According to Falade, the industry is meeting at a defining moment – for over six decades, Nigeria exported crude oil and imported the products refined from it. With every cargo, we exported jobs, value, and foreign exchange. I dare say that era is ending.
“Our long-held goal of making Nigeria a net exporter of refined products is no longer just an ambition—it is a reality led directly by the private sector. Let me specifically commend Alhaji Aliko Dangote, GCON, whose world-class 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery has fundamentally transformed our energy landscape, an achievement further underscored by the landmark Initial Public Offering (IPO) which opened earlier this month – a powerful signal of the economic value now being created in the Nigerian refining industry and the potential to deepen domestic and international capital participation in our capital markets. Alongside him, I applaud every refiner here today, whose grit and entrepreneurial vision continue to drive Nigeria towards true energy security.”
Falade believed that the focus of the summit is of strategic importance to the future of Nigeria’s energy sector as it aims to confront a direct question: Can Nigeria Reliably Feed Its Refineries? From where I stand, the answer is equally direct: Geologically, yes. Technically, yes. Commercially and Logistically, —not yet there and certainly not by regulation alone.
Nigeria can reliably feed its refineries if we increase production, protect evacuation infrastructure, match crude grades to refinery configurations and create a domestic crude market in which commercial terms are competitive, transparent and investable.
The strategic direction is clear – In the medium term, Nigeria is moving towards a situation in which domestic refineries could require more than 1.5 million barrels of crude per day, depending on rehabilitation progress, expansion activities, operating rates and the commissioning of more modular refineries.
This is not a marginal demand adjustment. It is close to all of Nigeria’s current liquids output which stands at 1.68million BPD as of August 2026 according to NUPRC’s August monthly production report.
Compared to a few years ago, the recovery in production is encouraging, but it is not yet sufficient to declare victory – If domestic refinery demand rises towards 1.5 million BPD as forecasted while crude production remains around 1.6 million BPD, the production system will have a very narrow margin for: existing export commitments; government revenue requirements; crude backed financing, JV partner offtake, planned and unplanned production outages; OPEC production commitments; grade mismatches; terminal and pipeline disruptions; and normal operational flexibility.
Falade spoke on NUPRC’s published reserves position as of 1 January 2026 which placed Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate reserves at approximately 37.01 billion barrels, while natural gas reserves stood at about 215.19 trillion cubic feet (TCF).
The challenge, therefore, is not whether the hydrocarbons exist underground. It is whether operators can convert reserves into production, production into secure supply, and secure supply into domestic refining competitiveness.
The IPPG Chairman spoke the achievements of the industry that have also been reinforced by the growing role of the IPPG – the umbrella body of 34 indigenous Exploration and Production companies, which are now core participants in the petroleum industry.
Today, IPPG member companies account for more than half of Nigeria’s total oil and gas production. Put simply, the feedstock required to power Nigeria’s refining sector will increasingly flow from our fields and terminals.
“Our collective responsibility now is to ensure that our statutory policy continues to convert into commercial reality. To achieve that, allow me to outline four clear priorities: First, we must grow the production base. Nigeria cannot refine barrels that are not produced.”
The answer to rising domestic refining demand is not merely to redistribute a limited pool of crude. The answer is to create more barrels. That means incentivising exploration, accelerating development activity, enabling marginal field growth, improving access to capital and ensuring that Nigeria remains competitive for upstream investment.
Secondly, the industry must protect and modernise evacuation infrastructure. The progress made in reducing crude theft and pipeline sabotage must be protected. But security is only the first step. Nigeria needs dedicated crude evacuation corridors, secure pipelines, adequate terminal capacity, sufficient storage, functional jetties and efficient marine logistics.
Thirdly, operate must build a true domestic crude market. Such a market must allow aggregation of volumes from multiple producers, grade blending, transparent swaps, substitutions among equivalent grades and efficient terminal delivery. A barrel is not simply a barrel. A refinery requires the right crude grade, in the right volume, of the right quality, delivered to the right location, at the right time and under the right commercial terms.
The fourth aspect is that industry must position Nigeria as a regional and global refining and petrochemical hub. The shifts in global refining, energy security and trade flows have created a window of opportunity for Nigeria. We have the resource base, market size, entrepreneurial capacity and geographic advantage to become a major African energy hub.
Falade advised the industry to move from annual allocation exercises to rolling supply planning; from mandates to bankable contracts; from capacity announcements to verified throughput; from opaque discounts to transparent market pricing; from fragmented logistics to aggregation and optimisation; and from managing scarcity to growing production.
The upstream industry stands ready to play its part.
“We hereby ask government, regulators, refiners, financiers and infrastructure operators to join us in creating a domestic crude market that is secure, transparent, competitive and investible.
If we do that, Nigeria will not merely feed its refineries – Nigeria will build a fully integrated petroleum economy in which every barrel is directed to its highest national and commercial value. That is how we refine for value. That is how we connect upstream supply to downstream demand. And that is how we convert policy into commercial reality.”
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