By Olaoye Samuel

In early April, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) announced that the country’s daily crude oil production had risen to about 1.8 million barrels per day. This was corroborated by the Honourable Minister of Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri at a recent management retreat in Abuja, where he disclosed that crude oil and condensate production had improved by over 80 per cent. since August 2023, when output stood at barely one million barrels per day. The number of active drilling rigs has equally climbed from fewer than ten to more than sixty.  This milestone is not only economically significant; it also signals the present administration’s determination to stabilise the energy sector, restore investor confidence and attract fresh capital into the industry.

It is, however, deeply worrisome that within this same period of rising production figures and increasing barrel counts, millions of Nigerians have sunk deeper into poverty, food insecurity and economic hardship. According to recent World Bank assessments, the proportion of Nigerians living below the poverty line rose from 56 per cent in 2023 to an estimated 63 per cent by 2025. This translates to roughly 140 million people now living in poverty. Food prices have also doubled or more for staple items, with food inflation reaching nearly 40 per cent at its height.

In essence, while oil production has risen, with government revenues improving and other macroeconomic indicators being strengthened, living standards for the vast majority of citizens have deteriorated noticeably. This contradiction is one that must jolt the government, policymakers, industry leaders, and citizens alike. When production increases substantially but living standards decline significantly, what exactly constitutes success?

The Underlying Truth

The disconnect between oil production metrics and welfare outcomes reveals a fundamental truth about resource management. It is entirely possible for an economy to show growth in headline figures while ordinary citizens experience declining living standards.

Perhaps the most telling indicator is what happened to GDP per capita. Although the economy expanded in overall size, economic output per person declined sharply. Estimates place Nigeria’s nominal GDP per capita at approximately US$877 in 2024, down from US$1,637 in 2023, before recovering modestly to US$1,223 in 2025 and US$1,556 in 2026. In other words, even the recovery being currently experienced is still well below pre-2023 levels. Exchange rate movements partially explain the drop, but the figures nonetheless reflect a real deterioration in average purchasing power and economic welfare.

For poor households, the impact has been especially severe. The World Bank reports that households in poverty spend up to 70 per cent of their income on food. When food inflation reaches 40 per cent, the mathematics become brutal. There is simply no capacity to absorb such shocks without reducing consumption or falling deeper into deprivation. The United Nations had earlier warned that nearly 35 million Nigerians could face food insecurity in 2026, with millions of children at risk of malnutrition.

 Oil Boom Is a Means, Not an End

For generations, Nigeria has measured success in its oil industry primarily through production volumes, reserve estimates, and export earnings. These metrics matter to investors, regulators, and government officials. They appear in quarterly reports and international comparisons. They guide policy decisions and corporate strategies. But the truth that policymakers and industry stakeholders must come to terms with is that production growth is only valuable because of what it enables, not for its own sake.

A nation can produce two million barrels daily and still struggle with widespread poverty, crumbling infrastructure, unemployment, and inadequate healthcare if the proceeds from that production are not strategically deployed. Conversely, other countries have used natural resource revenues to build prosperity, modernise their economies, and improve living standards for their entire populations.

Norway is the most frequently cited example. The country established a sovereign wealth fund that has grown to exceed US$1.8 trillion, providing economic security for future generations whilst supporting world-class infrastructure, healthcare, and education today. The United Arab Emirates transformed oil revenues into modern cities, economic diversification, and global business competitiveness. Even within Africa, Botswana’s management of diamond wealth is regarded as a model of how natural resources can support long-term development when institutions are sound and investment is disciplined.

The lesson from these countries is that natural resources do not automatically create prosperity. Deliberate policy choices do. Success in resource management is not determined by how much you extract. It is determined by how effectively you convert extraction into lasting improvements in the lives of your citizens.

 Communicating in the Masses’ Language

Most Nigerians do not experience the oil industry through production statistics or government reports. They experience it through everyday realities. Can they afford to commute to work without spending a substantial portion of their earnings on transport? Can small businesses operate without incurring crushing diesel costs? Are food prices becoming more manageable or less? Are the roads they travel on improving? Are hospitals functioning reliably? Are young people finding employment? Can families afford the basic necessities without constant financial stress?

These are the metrics that ultimately determine whether natural resource wealth is benefiting a country. They may not appear in quarterly production reports, but they represent the real measure of economic welfare.

The disconnect between what government officials announce and what citizens experience on the ground has become significant. When a ministry announces that production has increased by 80 per cent, many Nigerians ask: how does this change my situation? If increased oil revenues have not resulted in more reliable electricity, better roads, functioning healthcare facilities, or more affordable food, what exactly has improved from the citizen’s perspective? The gap between these two experiences should concern everyone with responsibility for the country’s future.

 The Way Forward

The recovery in oil production provides a momentous opportunity to redefine success in the country’s petroleum sector. Increased production can be celebrated, but celebration must be accompanied by accountability. Every additional barrel produced should contribute to improving the quality of life of ordinary Nigerians.

This requires strategic choices in how oil revenues are deployed. Infrastructure investment is essential. Currently, the country’s transportation networks, port facilities, power generation capacity, and water systems all require substantial upgrading. Every dollar earned from crude exports should strengthen the country’s productive capacity. Better roads reduce transportation costs and stimulate economic activity. More reliable electricity reduces dependence on expensive generators and enables manufacturing. Improved port infrastructure enhances trade competitiveness.

Diversification through job creation is equally important. The oil industry generates enormous revenue but is not a major employer relative to Nigeria’s population. Oil revenues should serve as a catalyst for growth in sectors that create employment on a larger scale, including manufacturing, agriculture, technology, logistics, and construction. A barrel of crude oil exported creates limited direct domestic economic activity compared with a thriving manufacturing ecosystem supported by reliable energy and modern infrastructure.

Finally, transparency and accountability must be strengthened. Citizens are more willing to support difficult reforms when they can see clear connections between government revenues and visible improvements in their circumstances. When production increases, people should be able to identify specific projects, programmes, and infrastructure that have been funded by those gains. Trust grows when results are visible. The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative has repeatedly highlighted the importance of accountability in revenue management. This work must continue and deepen.

 Government Accountability and Citizens’ Vigilance

It is noteworthy that, following subsidy removal, the Federal Government has significantly increased monthly allocations to state governments and, for the first time in many years, local government councils now receive direct budgetary allocations rather than funds filtered through state administrations.

These structural changes were intended to bring resources closer to citizens and accelerate development at the grassroots level. The premise is that local governments know their communities’ needs better than distant federal bureaucracies. States have the machinery to implement development projects. Money flowing to these levels should theoretically translate into visible improvements in schools, healthcare centres, roads, and local infrastructure.

Yet here is where Nigerians must become far more demanding. Increased oil revenues flowing to state and local governments mean nothing if those resources disappear into obscure accounts or finance projects that never materialise. The tragedy of Nigeria’s resource management has not only been at the federal level. Many citizens have watched state governments receive substantial funds only to see minimal evidence of corresponding development. The same pattern risks repeating with these new allocations.

Nigerians must therefore make accountability a non-negotiable expectation at every level of government. When your state receives increased allocations from Abuja, you deserve clear information about where that money is being spent. When your local government council receives direct budgetary support, you should be able to identify specific projects and their progress. This is not about distrust; it is about stewardship. Public money belongs to the public, and those who manage it have a duty to account for it transparently.

Several mechanisms exist for citizens to demand this accountability. Budget transparency portals, public expenditure tracking initiatives, and community-level monitoring have proven effective in other countries. Citizens can attend budget hearings, request financial disclosures, track project implementation and insist that governors and local council chairmen account for how public funds are being spent. Community groups, civil society organisations, and the media have roles to play in sustaining pressure.

The responsibility does not rest solely with government. Citizens themselves must become informed, organised, and vocal about what they expect. When a state government announces new road construction, citizens should follow its progress. When a local council claims to be building a health centre, the community should verify the work. When teachers remain unpaid or hospitals lack basic supplies despite increased allocations, citizens should ask loudly and insistently: where is the money?

Redefining Success in the Petroleum Sector

Nigeria has spent decades measuring success in barrels produced, reserves discovered and export earnings generated. Those indicators remain important, but they are grossly inadequate. The more meaningful measure is whether resource wealth translates into lower poverty, better infrastructure, affordable energy, quality healthcare, stronger schools and greater economic opportunity.

The recent recovery in oil production is encouraging. Yet its true significance will not be determined by industry reports or government announcements. It will be determined by whether ordinary Nigerians experience tangible improvements in their daily lives.

Until then, rising production will remain an achievement for the petroleum sector. It will not yet be a triumph for the nation.

Olaoye Samuel writes from Lagos (07033179360)