The Major Energy Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) said the 15 per cent import tariff on fuel products could raise pump prices, burden consumers and impede the progress of the downstream industry.
If the tariff is implemented , it will increase the pump prices of petrol and diesel (AGO) to N998 a litre of petrol around Lagos and its environ and ₦1,028 a litre in upcountry markets, while that of diesel could be between N1,164 and N1,194 depending on marketing margins, thereby significantly raising fuel prices across the country.
Executive Secretary of MEMAN, Clement Isong made this known in a Webinar organized with S&P Global Commodity Insights.
According to Isong, advised that the government should think it through before slamming the tariff on these two products as it is capable of having unimaginable economic consequences on the common man
Isong pointed out that that the topic, “Market Context and Local Refineries Protection,” policy could be regressive and disproportionately impact low-income households and small businesses unless mitigated.
MEMAN advised the Federal Government to consider complementary policies that promote competition, transparency, and consumer protection in the deregulated market.
He added that the National Petroleum Policy encourages local refining and market liberalization, imposing a high import tariff on refined petroleum products could unintentionally push pump prices up.
There has to be transparent, evidence-based policy debate with open market pricing computations and end-user prices be published regularly to prevent information asymmetry and market abuse.
The new tariff would raise the landing cost of imported products, allowing local refiners to recover costs and margins—a key argument advanced by proponents who maintain that domestic production costs currently exceed import costs.
“Importers would likely pass the tariffs on to consumers, while domestic refiners would price just below the new landed-cost floor, effectively removing the import benchmark that currently keeps prices competitive.”
Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) should ensure active regulatory oversight for fair competition and nationwide product availability. The policy could create competitive distortions, squeezing smaller independent importers out of the market.
According to Isong, “Public policy must be data-driven, evidence-based, and independently verified. Regulatory safeguards must be in place to prevent excessive price hikes and to protect consumers from undue hardship.”
MEMAN recommended alternative and complementary solutions to tariffs, including phased or conditional tariff implementation linked to verified domestic refining milestones; production-linked incentives and temporary tax credits for local refiners based on uptime, investment, and job creation; financial support such as low-interest loans or tax relief to help existing and modular refineries become competitive; stronger anti-smuggling enforcement and customs reforms to prevent market distortions; and exchange rate management to make local products more competitive.
He spoke on fast-tracking of NNPC Heritage and modular refineries to increase local fuel availability and reduce import dependence, describing direct support to domestic producers as a “superior economic policy to tariffs.”
Dumdisi Awanen and Tanya Stepanova, S&P Global Commodity Insights analysts presented a paper titled “Navigating Transformation: Lessons from Global Markets for Nigeria’s Energy Future.”
According to the analysts Nigeria remains a pioneer in fuel market liberalization in Africa but still requires strong regulatory oversight to ensure fair competition and prevent monopolies.
For instance, Ghana, Zambia, Morocco, and South Africa, they explained that excessive protectionist policies can distort markets, while transparent regulation and open-access systems promote competition and price stability.
In Ghana, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) sets indicative maximum and minimum pump prices to protect consumers while allowing fair margins for marketers. Zambia’s open-access TAZAMA pipeline system, introduced in 2025, has also helped lower diesel prices by encouraging competition among transporters.
The S&P Global team emphasized that striking the right balance between supporting Nigeria’s emerging refining sector—led by the Dangote Refinery and others—and maintaining market competition will be crucial for sustainable energy development.
The Analysts explained that while Dangote’s ex-refinery prices are currently lower than import parity prices when logistics are considered, continued transparency and fair regulation are needed to prevent market dominance and ensure that liberalization benefits all stakeholders.
Concluding their remarks MEMAN and S&P Global agreed that Nigeria’s downstream sector is undergoing a major transformation, with new refineries, deregulated pricing, and declining imports marking a new era.
But policy missteps, such as premature tariffs or weak regulation could hamper the industry and cause lots of disruptions as some stakeholders have alluded, hence the success of the downstream depends on effective policy especially in terms of market competition.
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