Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, Chief Executive of NUPRC
…Recent licensing rounds were conducted with unprecedented transparency, unmatched competitiveness and remarkable investor engagement.
…Nigeria targets increasing production from 1.46 million bpd to 2.5 million bpd by 2026.
-Felix Douglas
While presenting his address titled: “Evolution of Oil and Gas Regulation in Nigeria: Opportunities, Achievements and Regulatory Strategies for Upstream Resource Optimization,” at the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) 50th anniversary, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, Commission Chief Executive (CCE), Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), appreciated the thoughtful reflection of the remarkable milestone in the journey of an intellectual association which is the engine and professional cornerstone of Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector.
Komolafe acknowledged that for five decades, NAPE has stood as a pillar of geoscientific excellence, driving strategic exploration, advancing industry knowledge, and building critical bridges between academia, government, and the energy sector.
This golden jubilee, themed “NAPE @ 50: Pioneering the Future of Energy in Africa,” is far more than a celebration; it marks a defining moment to reaffirm shared commitment to building a resilient, innovative, and forward-looking energy future for Nigeria and the African continent.
Engr. Komolafe said Nigeria’s upstream petroleum sector has evolved through decades of learning and legacy.
“For over fifty years, the Petroleum Act of 1969 governed our industry, providing structure during its early formative years. However, over time, the limitations of that legal framework became increasingly evident. Operational inefficiencies, overlapping regulations, opaque fiscal structures, and limited investor confidence hindered the sectoral growth. Prolonged project approval cycles and the absence of a globally competitive regulatory framework restricted Nigeria’s ability to fully harness its hydrocarbon potential.
However, this trajectory changed with the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021. The PIA ushered in a new era of governance, fiscal reform, and institutional realignment. It represents a paradigm shift from static regulation to dynamic, performance-based governance and investor-centric policies anchored in transparency, clarity, and global competitiveness. With it came the establishment of NUPRC, a dedicated and forward-thinking regulator, charged with the responsibility of repositioning Nigeria as a world-class upstream oil and gas jurisdiction.
The NUPRC Chief Executive pointed out that the Commission has embraced its mandate with a clear focus on upstream resource optimization. It has issued 19 enabling regulations that operationalize key provisions of the PIA. These regulations are benchmarked against global standards, providing a stable and predictable framework that enhances investor confidence.
In addition, the Commission has developed and unveiled a comprehensive Regulatory Action Plan (RAP), aligned with the intent of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), signalling to both domestic and international stakeholders that Nigeria is ready to lead with clarity, confidence, and competitiveness. This RAP, framed within the broader context of NUPRC’s 10-Year Strategic Plan (2023–2033), sets out tactical initiatives to address long-standing bottlenecks, promote timely and transparent licensing rounds, and introduce fiscally attractive frameworks for offshore, deepwater, and gas-based investments. In a fiercely competitive global environment, the RAP serves as both a corrective and catalytic framework to boost Nigeria’s share of sub-Saharan Africa’s upstream investments which hitherto had dropped from 44% in 2014 to just 30% in 2022. It reflects the Commission’s readiness to confront the realities of the present, restore investor confidence, and elevate Nigeria’s global standing as a prime investment destination in the upstream oil and gas space.
Engr. Komolafe said NUPRC has embedded data intelligence and digital innovation into upstream operations. The revitalized National Data Repository (NDR), Africa’s largest digital petroleum data bank, now enables seamless access to high-quality geoscientific data, improving investment decision-making. Through seismic reprocessing, advanced data-driven basin analysis, and targeted data acquisition, we are enhancing subsurface knowledge and de-risking exploration.
He spoke on recent bid rounds – anchored on quality data access, regulatory certainty, and an investor-centred reform agenda – recorded unprecedent successes.
These successes include: the 57 PPL awards of 2022, the 2022 Mini-Bid Round, and the 2024 Licensing Round. Each of these rounds was conducted with unprecedented transparency, unmatched competitiveness, and remarkable investor engagement. Fiscal reform has indeed been a key lever. The Commission has implemented competitive royalty regimes, zero hydrocarbon tax for certain projects, and other fiscals’ consolidation mechanisms tailored to support project viability.
Through Project One Million Barrels Initiative, launched in 2024, Nigeria is actively ramping up crude oil production by reactivating dormant fields, fast-tracking regulatory approvals, and enhancing operational efficiencies across the upstream value chain. With a clear target of increasing production from 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd) to 2.5 million bpd by 2026, the initiative has already demonstrated strong momentum with current unreconciled daily production averaging 1.7 – 1.83 million bpd.
Equally crucial is the protection and optimization of national hydrocarbon assets. The approval of 37 new evacuation routes, coupled with intensified collaboration with national security agencies, has significantly curtailed crude theft and enhanced accountability across the industry. At the same time, the enforcement of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) is securing consistent feedstock to local refineries, strengthening Nigeria’s internal supply chains and building long-term economic resilience.
The NUPRC boss said on the socio-developmental front, the Host Community Development Trust (HCDT) framework, fully operational via the Commission’s host comply digital platform, has created unprecedented transparency and direct community impact, fostering trust, reducing conflict, and reinforcing social licence to operate.
The broader digital transformation agenda is also reshaping regulatory engagement: streamlining approvals, improving investor clarity, and delivering faster and smarter oversight.
“While hydrocarbons continue to generate nearly 90% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and 70% of government revenue, we are fully aware that the long-term viability of our energy sector depends on aligning growth with climate responsibility. Our gas-centric energy transition strategy is a cornerstone of this effort, anchored by flagship initiatives such as the Decade of Gas, the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), and the Presidential CNG Initiative. These programmes collectively aim to eliminate routine gas flaring by 2030 and reduce methane emissions by 60% by 2031.”
The Commission is working collaboratively with industry stakeholders to fully monetize Nigeria’s abundant gas resources through strategic LNG expansion, deployment of floating production solutions, and the development of cross-border pipelines designed not only to power Nigeria’s economy but to accelerate Africa’s broader industrialisation. Beyond infrastructure, NUPRC is also championing the creation of a transparent, competitive, and investor-friendly gas market, unlocking the commercial potential of an estimated 600+ trillion cubic feet of gas resources (upward potential) and positioning Nigeria as a central hub in the global energy transition.
Continuing, Komolafe said net-zero ambition is also anchored on Nigeria’s Upstream Decarbonisation Framework and Blueprint designed by the Commission to integrate emissions monitoring, MRV systems, carbon capture and storage, and access to climate finance via carbon markets. In doing so, we are enabling emissions reduction to generate value through a burgeoning carbon services ecosystem: comprising monitoring technologies, advisory services, and advanced deployment tools, while upholding the highest standards of environmental and asset integrity.
The transformative impact has been remarkable. The oil and gas sector has seen a significant surge in investment. New investors, empowered by clarity and quality, have entered our sector, oil and gas reserves and production have increased, while rig counts have surged from 8 in 2021 to 43 currently, with projections to reach 50 by the end of the year. This momentum reflects a bold new chapter; one driven by ambition, resilience, and opportunity.
Engr. Komolafe spoke on gas development that with 210.54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, the largest in Africa, and 37.28 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, Nigeria holds enormous reserves. As the largest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria currently produces approximately 1.8 million barrels of oil per day and 8 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day. However, our national aspiration is to increase production to 3 million barrels of oil and 12 billion standard cubic feet of gas per day. Realizing these ambitious targets requires sustained investment to unlock untapped basins, advance the development of mature and frontier fields, and establish critical oil and gas infrastructure to secure our future energy needs and support the demands of Nigeria’s rapidly growing population.
There are new frontier opportunities in onshore, shallow water and deep offshore blocks, especially in underexplored basins, enabled by our new licensing rounds regime. There are also other vast and compelling transformative opportunities particularly in natural gas development, gas-to-power initiatives, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects, FLNGs and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) transportation infrastructure, aimed at enhancing both export capacity and domestic energy supply.
In addition, attractive green investment prospects exist in decarbonisation technologies and renewable energy solutions, as well as a wide range of other investment and business opportunities in project financing, investment and technical services.
The narratives underscore vast opportunities within Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector, driven by transformative reforms under the PIA, Presidential Executive Orders, supportive policies, tax incentives, and ongoing infrastructure improvements. With abundant natural resources, and a large, youthful, future-ready and innovative workforce, Nigeria stands as a compelling and competitive destination for both existing investors and new entrants seeking to participate in our dynamic and promising energy landscape.
Engr. Komolafe believed that while challenges such as infrastructure deficits and investment apathy, fuelled by the global energy transition and environmental concerns, still exist, they are not insurmountable.
According to the NUPRC boss, with well-informed strategies and robust collaboration across local and regional stakeholders, these obstacles can be effectively addressed.
“In line with this, our forward agenda includes: sustaining competitive licensing rounds, accelerating frontier basin exploration; fast-tracking the reactivation of shut-in and dormant assets; advancing the 1MMBPD initiative; expanding evacuation infrastructure to secure production volumes; deploying the Advanced Cargo Declaration System to curb crude theft and improve export transparency; guaranteeing steady domestic crude supply to refineries; enforcing Executive Orders #40–42 to boost commercial viability, operational efficiency, and local content participation; advancing social investment, and regional energy integration; operationalising our decarbonisation strategies and enabling carbon market participation, and deepening gas commercialisation efforts across all initiatives.”
Engr. Komolafe congratulated NAPE as it celebrates its golden jubilee and reminded the association that the celebration is not just about the past, but about charting the course for the future.
The regulatory evolution in Nigeria’s upstream sector has laid the foundation for a more resilient, transparent, and investor-ready energy landscape.
Industry operators and stakeholders should recommit themselves to deepening exploration frontiers and translating resources into inclusive prosperity.
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