Nigeria may be on the verge of a domestic LPG supply crunch, according to multiple credible industry sources.
Prior to the emergence of the Dangote refinery, the primary sources of LPG in the country were, domestic gas from the NLNG, supplemented with imports by marketers. However, since January 2025, the Dangote Refinery has systematically undercut and pushed other players out of the market, including the NLNG by aggressively slashing prices.
This strategy has made Dangote the dominant and de facto sole supplier of LPG over the last eight months. At present, the refinery is not producing or supplying LPG, and sources are unsure why. The market is now exposed, as previous suppliers remain reluctant to re-enter, wary of being undercut again once Dangote resumes operations.
Should importers step in to fill the gap, it would take 2–3 weeks to land product. This delay could result in a temporary supply gap and price volatility, which is already manifesting.
While this development provides a troubling preview of what market dominance could look like, especially on PMS, the refinery’s price undercutting strategy underscores the systemic risks of a monopolistic structure within Nigeria’s downstream sector, which has unprecedented implications for sector, and the Nigerian economy.
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